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Two new reports on the economy provided a grim snapshot of how steep the slump is becoming.The Commerce Department reported Monday that construction spending fell by a larger-than-expected 1.2 percent in October, while the Institute for Supply Management said its gauge of manufacturing activity dropped to a 26-year low in November.To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos.I am going to follow up with another piece describing how I use this information for investment decisions.The production at mines increased 1.4 percent following a gain of 2.0 percent in March.
Markov switch models are employed in MATLAB through the MS_Regress to identify the turning points in a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series covering the time span 1991-2012.For a more detailed analysis, see my latest update on Real Retail Sales Per Capita. Here is the Federal Reserve overview: Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in April 2014 after having risen about 1 percent in both February and March. The index had increased substantially in February and March following a decrease in January; severe weather had restrained production early in the quarter.The output of utilities dropped 5.3 percent in April, as demand for heating returned toward normal levels.“The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus.” The NBER's seven-member Business Cycle Dating Committee met Friday and determined that economic activity peaked last December and has essentially been declining since then.
Payroll employment peaked that month and has declined every month since then, with the economy shedding some 1.2 million jobs, the committee noted in a statement on the NBER Web site.
The stochastic model also gives the recession's probability of persistence together with the estimated duration.